New Hampshire’s Republican presidential primary race appears to be in former president’s hands Donald Trumpaccording to new research from CNN conducted by the University of New Hampshire (UNH) after Trump’s 30-point victory in the Iowa caucuses last week.
Trump holds 50% support among likely Republican primary voters in the so-called “Granite State,” while his closest competitor, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, is at 39%.
Both have gained support since the last CNN/UNH poll in early January – when Trump held 39% to Haley’s 32% – as the field of leading candidates narrowed.
Both Trump and Haley now hold the highest level of support in UNH polls of the race since 2021.
But Haley’s sharp gains since late last summer were not enough to catch Trump, as the gap between them once again widened to double digits.
O Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced on Sunday who is ending his bid for the White House and supporting the former president.
He received just 6% in the poll, below the minimum 10% support he would need to win delegates under Republican Party rules.
For Trump’s opponents, New Hampshire has long appeared to be the starting place on the primary calendar that offers the best chance of throwing him off track in his bid for the GOP’s third consecutive presidential nomination.
It was the only state where polls consistently found Trump without majority support and where voters often showed more openness to his rivals.
But this latest survey suggests that Trump’s popularity within the Republican base and the commitment of his supporters outweigh the appeal of his opponents.
New Hampshire’s traditional independent streak and more moderate group of likely primary voters, when compared with other states whose nomination contests take place before “Super Tuesday,” are part of the reason some of Trump’s rivals have set their sights on the state. as the place to stand out.
And Haley won over these groups.
She holds 58% support among those who are registered as “undeclared” (New Hampshire’s term for independent voters) and plan to vote in the Republican primary, and 71% support among those who consider themselves ideologically moderate.
She is also ahead of Trump among voters with a college degree (50% Haley to 38% Trump).
But each of these groups alone constitutes a minority of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire: 47% are registered undeclared, 33% are at least licensed, and only about 3 in 10 describe themselves as moderate.
Trump has largely consolidated his support among opposing sides of each of these groups.
He has the support of 67% of registered Republicans, 71% of conservatives and 55% of those without a college degree. And among Trump supporters, 88% say they have definitely decided to support him, compared to 74% of Haley supporters who are similarly stuck.
This translates to 45% of the electorate being firmly decided Trump supporters, compared to just 30% who are equally decided Haley supporters.
With Tuesday’s primary just days away, about 1 in 5 likely Republican primary voters overall say they haven’t yet decided on their choice.
This group largely supports Haley as of now: 51% support her, 28% support Trump, and 14% say they support DeSantis.
Broadly speaking, likely Republican voters in the New Hampshire primary expect Trump to win on Tuesday (70% say they think he will, although just 36% of Haley supporters think so).
And more say they would be pleased if he became the party’s presidential nominee would feel this way about Haley or DeSantis (61% say they would be thrilled or pleased if Trump won the nomination, compared with 54% each saying the same about Haley or DeSantis).
And Trump continues to be viewed more favorably than Haley or DeSantis in the primary electorate: 56% have a positive view of Trump, compared to 36% who feel that way about Haley and 28% about DeSantis.
He is the only remaining candidate who has maintained a positive net favorability rating over the past year, while Haley ends the New Hampshire campaign in negative territory.
The state’s Republican primary electorate also has a largely positive outlook on what Trump has actually done as president.
Looking back at his first term, 70% of likely Republican primary voters say he did more to help the country than hurt it, while 28% say he did more to hurt it and 2% say he did more his time in office did not help him. much difference.
The poll asked whether Trump would try — and succeed — at six things he talked about doing during the campaign:
- build a wall along the US-Mexico border;
- appoint a special prosecutor to “go after” President Joe Biden and his family;
- dismantle the “deep state”;
- repeal Obamacare by replacing it with another health care law;
- end the war between Russia and Ukraine;
- reimpose a travel ban on seven Muslim-majority countries.
Majorities in the GOP electorate say that if he wins, Trump will probably be able to accomplish four of these six: build the wall (71% say he will definitely or probably be able to do it), end the war between Ukraine and Russia ( 59%), reimpose the travel ban (56%), and appoint a prosecutor to go after the Biden family (53%).
Far fewer voters see Trump as likely to succeed in dismantling the deep state (39%) or repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act (34%).
Democratic primaries in New Hampshire
About two-thirds of likely primary voters on the Democratic side say they plan to write Biden’s name on the ballot (63%).
Biden did not run in the state’s primary because the primary violates the Democratic National Committee’s rules for the nominating process, but his supporters organized an effort to write his name.
Nearly all likely Democratic primary voters are aware of this effort: 91% said they heard Biden would not be on the ballot before taking the survey.
Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota has 10% support in the poll, matching his highest rating in the CNN/UNH poll of the race, and writer Marianne Williamson has 9% support, with 11% saying they would support someone else.
Nearly all Biden supporters, 92%, say they have definitely decided to support him, compared with just 28% of those who support another candidate.
A majority of Democratic primary voters say they would be at least satisfied with Biden as their party’s nominee (70% say they would be enthusiastic or satisfied), but enthusiasm for Biden among Democratic primary voters (31%) is lower than enthusiasm for Trump on the Republican Party side (46%).
Still, just 46% of likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire say Biden would give the party its best chance of winning in 2024, while 39% say someone else would give Democrats a better chance, and 15% say who are not sure.
There is little consensus among those who say someone else would be better next to who she could be. Phillips is mentioned most frequently at 28%, but a wide range of other names also come up.
Most likely, Democratic primary voters say that in Biden’s time as president, he has done more to help the country than hurt it (71% helped, 16% hurt, 11% didn’t make much of a difference).
But neither Biden nor Trump are seen by most New Hampshire residents as helping the country during their respective presidencies.
Overall, 55% of New Hampshire adults say Trump has harmed the country as president, and 51% say Biden has. There is not much overlap between the two groups.
Only 8% of the total say that both men did more to hurt than help, only 1% that both men did more to help, 41% say that Trump helped and Biden hurt, 35% that Trump hurt and Biden helped, and 10% that Trump hurt, while Biden didn’t make much of a difference.
About the search
The CNN New Hampshire poll was conducted online Jan. 16-19 by the University of New Hampshire Research Center.
Results from the full sample of 2,348 New Hampshire adults, drawn from a probability-based panel, have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Likely Republican and Democratic primary voters were identified through questions about their voting intention.
The results among 1,210 likely Republican primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
The results among 838 likely Democratic primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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