OPEC forecasts global oil demand growth at 2.2 mb/d in 2024

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remains unchanged at 2.2 mb/d, with the OECD growing by around 0.3 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d, Report informs, citing OPEC MOMR.

In 1Q24, oil demand is expected to grow by 2.0 mb/d y-o-y. Total world oil demand is anticipated to reach 104.4 mb/d in 2024, bolstered by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including on-road diesel and trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries. Similarly, capacity additions and petrochemical margins in non-OECD countries—mostly in China and the Middle East—are expected to contribute to oil demand growth. However, this forecast is subject to many uncertainties, including global economic developments.

The initial forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 shows robust growth of 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.7 mb/d.

The forecast for 2023 world oil demand growth remains unchanged from the previous assessment at 2.5 mb/d. Minor data revisions are made in 1Q23 to 3Q23 for the OECD and China to accommodate the latest received data. Also, the demand forecast for OECD Americas in 4Q23 is adjusted upward, reflecting better-than-expected improvements in oil demand. Similarly, the demand forecast for China and the Middle East is adjusted slightly upwards, following data showing improvements in oil demand.

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