The PVV won the House of Representatives elections by far. Geert Wilders’ party has 35 seats based on the exit poll. GL-PvdA seems to be heading for 25 seats and the VVD on 24 seats.
The exit poll has identified a clear winner. The difference between the PVV and GL-PvdA is so great that the result will no longer be a surprise. An exit poll usually has a margin of error of a few seats.
The VVD has lost ten seats compared to the previous elections. After thirteen years with Mark Rutte at the helm, the party has not managed to become the largest again with a new party leader.
As a newcomer, Pieter Omtzigt seems to be heading for twenty seats with his party NSC. He was leading in the polls for a long time, but that changed last week.
Wilders’ PVV has actually been on the rise in the last week. This was partly due to the attitude of VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz. She opened the door to the PVV at the start of the campaign. Mark Rutte ruled out Geert Wilders’ party as a possible coalition partner in the previous elections.
PVV may take the lead in formation
It is tradition that the largest party can take the lead in the formation. So it is Wilders’ turn later this week. The big question is whether he can form a coalition. The relationship with the VVD has become complicated. Yesilgöz always said that she did not exclude voters and was willing to cooperate with the PVV.
But she half-changed her mind on Tuesday. In the broadcast of Sven on 1 she said she would not sit in a cabinet if the PVV became the largest party and Wilders the prime minister.
Many other parties exclude the PVV on principle. Wilders cannot count on cooperation with GL-PvdA, CDA, PvdD, DENK and Volt.
Wilders must seek cooperation with VVD and NSC
What about the NSC? According to Omtzigt, the PVV is violating the constitution with a ban on Qurans and mosques. “You cannot form a government with those positions,” Omtzigt said in the SBS debate last week. Wilders has already indicated that he will effortlessly shelve those points from his election manifesto if necessary. Reducing the migration and asylum influx is “a hundred times more important” to him. The question is whether Omtzigt is satisfied with this.
BBB leader Caroline van der Plas announced on Wednesday evening immediately after the exit poll that she expects to be invited by Wilders to discuss a possible collaboration. But with its 7 seats they are far from a majority (76 seats are needed for that).
Wilders will therefore have to do business with the VVD and NSC. Only with both parties on board can there be a stable majority. If only one of the two wants to work together, the 76 seats will not be included.
D66 and CDA lose significantly
CDA and D66 lose significantly compared to the previous elections. The Christian Democrats end up with 5 seats, but that is not really a surprise. Things have not been going well for the CDA for some time now. The new party leader Henri Bontenbal previously spoke of an interim phase for his party.
D66 won significantly in the previous elections and has held 24 seats in the House of Representatives for the past 2.5 years. Rob Jetten’s party now appears to have 10 seats.
The Christian Union also lost compared to the previous elections. All parties of the old coalition have therefore been punished.
Caroline van der Plas’s BBB grows to 7 seats in the Chamber. The party achieved a historic victory in the Provincial Council elections last March. Many voters now seem to have switched to NSC and PVV.
The post first appeared on www.nu.nl